What previous 'Super' El Niños can tell us about this one?

Imagine the ocean is a giant bathtub that sometimes gets way too warm, and this makes the whole planet feel like it has a fever. El Niño is when the water near South America suddenly heats up, like turning on the shower tap when you are already in a hot bath. Scientists look at old records to see if this current "Super" El Niño will be as strong as the ones that happened a long time ago.

Think of the Earth's temperature like a thermometer that has been recording for many years. A "previous Super El Niño" is like finding an old drawing of the sun being really, really bright in July. We know that when the ocean water gets very warm, it pushes heat into the sky. This changes the wind patterns, which are like invisible rivers moving across the globe.

When we compare this year to past "Super" years, we are basically playing a game of "guess the pattern." If last time the waters were super hot, it often meant the summer was extra hot and some places had big storms while others had droughts. By studying these old events, scientists can predict what might happen next. It is like knowing that if you eat spicy food, your tummy might hurt again. We do not know for sure yet, but we have a good idea based on what happened before. The ocean is telling us a story about its past temperature to help us understand our future weather.