What is Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)?

ARIMA is a way to predict what will happen next by looking at patterns from before.

Imagine you're on a swing. Each time you go higher, you push yourself a little more. If you keep doing this, you can guess how high you'll go next time, just like ARIMA guesses numbers based on past swings.

ARIMA stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. Let’s break that down with things a kid knows:

• Autoregressive (AR) is like remembering the last few swings. If you went really high last time, you might go slightly lower this time, but still pretty high.
• Integrated (I) means we look at how much things changed over time. It's like noticing that each swing gets a little higher than the one before.
• Moving Average (MA) is like asking your friend what they think will happen next based on recent swings.

ARIMA takes all these ideas and uses them to predict what number comes next in a sequence, just like knowing how high you'll go on the swing by looking at past patterns. It’s not magic, it's smart guessing using math!